The Paramount Pictures release is on track to generate more
than $100 million over the weekend when it debuts in 4,200 locations, 353 of
which are Imax. The studio is being more conservative with its projections and
putting the number between $90 million to $100 million.
If it hits those lofty heights it will rank as the year’s
biggest opening. “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” currently ranks no. 1
with $95 million.
“The market is wide open for a big hit and the brand
recognition of the (Transformers) franchise is pretty staggering,” said Phil
Contrino, vice president and chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “Even if it
doesn’t win the summer or the year at the domestic box office, its overseas
potential is huge and that’s the name of the game.”
To that end, Paramount is planning an ambitious
international rollout that will see “Transformers: Age of Extinction” open in
37 markets, including such key territories as South Korea, Australia and
Russia. The comparable gross for opening weekends in these territories for the
most recent film in the series was $162 million, which provides a sense of the
franchise’s global appeal and profitability.
The big plum will be China, where the picture will open
day-and-date with the United States after having filmed extensively in the
country and on national landmarks such as the Great Wall. China, the world’s
second largest market for film, could contribute $200 million or more to the sequel’s
bottom line, analysts say, topping the more than $160 million the People’s
Republic contributed in receipts for “Transformers: Dark of the Moon.”
The “Transformers” films represent a license to print money
for Paramount and Hasbro, the company behind the iconic toyline — having
brought in more than $2.6 billion at the global box office and $7 billion in
merchandising.
They’re also opening weekend juggernauts. The most recent
film, “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” bowed to $97.8 million when it premiered
in 2011, and the other franchise entries, 2007′s “Transformers” and 2009′s
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen,” have premiered to $70.5 million and
$108.9 million respectively.
It has been an uneven summer when it comes to major studio
releases. Films like “Godzilla” and “The Amazing Spider-Man 2″ have stuck the
landing with huge opening weekends, only to fade quickly through their second
or third week in theaters. Only “X-Men: Days of Future Past” has cracked the
$200 million mark domestically, although the web-spinning adventure could crawl
over the line this weekend.
“It’s so hard to differentiate a tentpole movie at this
point,” said Bruce Nash, founder of the box office stats site The Numbers.
“They’re all sort of boxed in by the formula. They have to have the 3D version,
the requisite special effects and elaborate sound, but there hasn’t been the
kind of dominant franchise this summer that’s going to rise above that
sameness.”
Well, a globe-straddling smash may have finally arrived.
Analysts say that “Transformers: Age of Extinction” represents the summer’s
best chance at fielding a film that does over $1 billion in receipts.
Pre-sales have been robust, with Fandango reporting the film
represents 96% of its weekend ticket sales and MovieTickets.com saying its
sales for “Transformers: Age of Extinction” are more than 82% higher than for
the most recent film at the same point in its cycle.
As for the film itself, Michael Bay will once again ride
herd over the battling robots, ensuring that there will be oodles of Magic Hour
lighting and ear-shattering explosions. The film also upgrades in the star
power department, swapping out celebrity-loathing Shia LaBeouf for the more
klieg-light friendly Mark Wahlberg.
The addition of Wahlberg and the easy-on-the-eyes duo of
Nicola Peltz and Jack Reynor should reinvigorate the franchise, analysts say,
potentially positioning it for parts five and six.
“It was like adding the Rock to the ‘Fast and Furious’
franchise,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Rentrak. “It
reinvents it.”
Courtsy:variety
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